Welp, a friend just told me they are detransitioning. They have a tendency to change their mind a lot, and have told me they are detransitioning before and quickly backed out of it, so I'm not sure if this will stick.
But this time feels more serious, like it might be real. It makes me sad, because it has more to do with society than any gender confusion.
We failed them. We set them up for failure.